Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
